Preventing exacerbations in patients with COPD is a major goal. If we can identify patients who are at higher risk of exacerbations, we may be able to tailor more aggressive therapy to such patients. This will result in better utilization of resources, improved risk/benefit ratio, and will not expose low-risk patients to the adverse effects of aggressive therapies. Thus, predicting exacerbation risk in individual patients can guide these clinical decisions. Unfortunately, there are no externally validated and implementable tools to predict COPD exacerbation.
That is until now: Adibi and colleagues have uploaded their manuscript to a preprint server (bioRxiv) which used data from three randomized trials to develop ACCEPT, a clinical prediction tool based on routinely available predictors for COPD exacerbations. Authors externally validated ACCEPT in a large, multinational prospective cohort. ACCEPT appears to be the first COPD exacerbation prediction tool that jointly estimates the individualized rate and severity of exacerbations. The tool is designed to be easily applicable in clinical practice and is accessible as a web application.
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